Papers

Articles, technical reports

  1. Lessons from near real-time forecasting of irregular leadership changes
    2017, Journal of Peace Research (appendix, replication)

  2. Irregular Leadership Changes in 2014: Forecasts using ensemble, split-population duration models,
    2016, International Journal of Forecasting (pdfreplication)

  3. Ensemble Forecasting of Irregular Leadership Changes,
    2014, Research & Politics (pdf, replication)

  4. Irregular Leadership Changes in 2014: Forecasts using ensemble, split-population duration models,
    2014, arXiv (pdf)
    This is a 59 page technical report written for the Political Instability Task Force.

Other papers

  1. Precision-recall curves
    2016, on SSRN (pdf)
    For rare outcomes (*cough*, a lot of IR), ROC curves and the area under them are not a great measure of model fit. Look at (the area under) precision-recall curves as well.

  2. Using front lines to predict deaths in the Bosnian civil war
    2012, (pdf)
    To be useful for forecasting and prediction, a statistical model needs to be feasible given the data it requires. This paper examines the relationship between front lines and other, time-invariant variables, and killings during the Bosnian civil war from 1992 to 1995. It uses a Bayesian spatial count model to estimate and compare model fit to other, more established conflict models. One of the dissertation papers.

  3. Explaining and predicting interstate war deaths
    2012, on SSRN (pdf)
    This paper is about predicting interstate war battle deaths. Data on 89 interstate wars between 1815 and 1991 is used to estimate a truncated regression model that provides the basis for out-of sample forecasts for two other wars. Also a dissertation paper.

  4. Predicting the intensity and location of violence in war
    2012, (pdf)
    My three-papers-wrapped-together Ph.D. dissertation.

  5. Simulating the Effects of Selection Bias in the Minorities at Risk Project.
    2008, (pdf)
    How much of a problem is it that the Minority at Risk project collects information only for ethnic groups that are “at risk”, i.e. selection on the dependent variable?