Recent Posts

A quick look at the public ICEWS data

3 minute read

The ICEWS data, including the underlying raw event data as well as some aggregations, were quietly posted on Dataverse the Friday before last. I’ve worked wi...

Precision-recall curves

8 minute read

ROC curves are not very good for evaluating model fit with sparse outcomes, like civil war onset or coups. Use precision-recall curves instead.

Archigos leader turnovers by regime

6 minute read

Exploration of data on leadership transitions and how they vary by regime types, using the Archigos data on state leaders and the Polity regime classification.

Building rgdal from source

1 minute read

My limited knowledge of what happens in Terminal, and thus by extension shell, is mostly driven by PostgreSQL/PostGID/rgdal/RPostgreSQL install errors. In th...

The right kind of variance

7 minute read

or, How I learned to stop worrying and love event data. (This post first appeared on Predictive Heuristics)