Recent Posts

When forecasting goes wrong (maybe): Yemen

10 minute read

Over the past few months we have worked on regularly updating our irregular leadership change models and forecasts in order to provide monthly 6-month ahead ...

Good coup, bad coup

8 minute read

Alexander Noyes and Sebastian Elischer wrote about good coups on Monkey Cage a few weeks ago, in the shadow of fallout from the LaCour revelations. Good coup...

A quick look at the public ICEWS data

3 minute read

The ICEWS data, including the underlying raw event data as well as some aggregations, were quietly posted on Dataverse the Friday before last. I’ve worked wi...

Precision-recall curves

8 minute read

ROC curves are not very good for evaluating model fit with sparse outcomes, like civil war onset or coups. Use precision-recall curves instead.

Archigos leader turnovers by regime

6 minute read

Exploration of data on leadership transitions and how they vary by regime types, using the Archigos data on state leaders and the Polity regime classification.