Posts by Tags

2017

3d surface plot

3d surface plots of GDP vs. event data

2 minute read

A while ago I wrote a post about how the patterns by which data for cross-national datasets observed over multiple periods, e.g. with country-year or country...

AUC-PR

Precision-recall curves

8 minute read

ROC curves are not very good for evaluating model fit with sparse outcomes, like civil war onset or coups. Use precision-recall curves instead.

AUC-ROC

Precision-recall curves

8 minute read

ROC curves are not very good for evaluating model fit with sparse outcomes, like civil war onset or coups. Use precision-recall curves instead.

Afghanistan

Database adventures

1 minute read

Recently I’ve set up both a PostgreSQL and MySQL server to host databases related to some of our projects in the Ward Lab. I should note that I have no idea ...

What’s in a SIGACT

less than 1 minute read

I've been working with SIGACT data (military significant activities reports) all day as part of a research project. When you are dealing with thousands of th...

Archigos

Good coup, bad coup

8 minute read

Alexander Noyes and Sebastian Elischer wrote about good coups on Monkey Cage a few weeks ago, in the shadow of fallout from the LaCour revelations. Good coup...

Archigos leader turnovers by regime

6 minute read

Exploration of data on leadership transitions and how they vary by regime types, using the Archigos data on state leaders and the Polity regime classification.

Bayesian

Yugoslavs die less

4 minute read

In 1991 a census was conducted in Bosnia and Herzegovina, which then was still part of the disintegrating federal state of Yugoslavia. Bosnia was the most di...

Bosnia

Scale and north arrow for maps in R

1 minute read

A few months ago I produced some thematic maps of Bosnia (paper) using maptools and other packages in R, but I didn’t include scales or a north arrow. It sou...

Yugoslavs die less

4 minute read

In 1991 a census was conducted in Bosnia and Herzegovina, which then was still part of the disintegrating federal state of Yugoslavia. Bosnia was the most di...

Duke

Plot of Duke grade inflation

2 minute read

Someone sent around a link this morning to data on grade inflation at Duke, which shows a table of average GPAs for undergraduates from 1932 on. Looking at t...

EC2

Running RStudio on Amazon EC2

1 minute read

For the most part I don’t do things that are computationally so intensive that I can’t run them on my work desktop. There have been a few times however where...

EU

Eurobarometer

GIS

IED

What’s in a SIGACT

less than 1 minute read

I've been working with SIGACT data (military significant activities reports) all day as part of a research project. When you are dealing with thousands of th...

ITT

Which governments torture?

1 minute read

Almost all states, at least at some point between 1995 and 2005. The Ill-Treatment and Torture (ITT) project by Courtenay Conrad and Will Moore codes Amnesty...

Infidelity

Iraq

The Iraq War, 2003 to 2011

1 minute read

President Obama announced today that U.S. troops will leave Iraq by the end of 2011. What has the 9 year long war accomplished?

Report on COIN intelligence collection

2 minute read

A few months ago the Defense Science Board Task Force on Defense Intelligence released a report on Counterinsurgency (COIN) Intelligence, Surveillance, and R...

MLE

Matt Dickenson

Moving from Wordpress to Jekyll

5 minute read

I moved my home page and blog from Wordpress to Jekyll over the past week, thanks to a small break in regular work. I’ve been using Wordpress.com since 2011,...

Michael Rosen

Moving from Wordpress to Jekyll

5 minute read

I moved my home page and blog from Wordpress to Jekyll over the past week, thanks to a small break in regular work. I’ve been using Wordpress.com since 2011,...

OS X Mavericks

Building rgdal from source

1 minute read

My limited knowledge of what happens in Terminal, and thus by extension shell, is mostly driven by PostgreSQL/PostGID/rgdal/RPostgreSQL install errors. In th...

Polity IV

Archigos leader turnovers by regime

6 minute read

Exploration of data on leadership transitions and how they vary by regime types, using the Archigos data on state leaders and the Polity regime classification.

PostGIS

Building rgdal from source

1 minute read

My limited knowledge of what happens in Terminal, and thus by extension shell, is mostly driven by PostgreSQL/PostGID/rgdal/RPostgreSQL install errors. In th...

Database adventures

1 minute read

Recently I’ve set up both a PostgreSQL and MySQL server to host databases related to some of our projects in the Ward Lab. I should note that I have no idea ...

PostgreSQL

Building rgdal from source

1 minute read

My limited knowledge of what happens in Terminal, and thus by extension shell, is mostly driven by PostgreSQL/PostGID/rgdal/RPostgreSQL install errors. In th...

Python

Time to learn Python

less than 1 minute read

Apparently Python is taking over the world (from a post by Tal Yarkoni):

R

Baby steps with R Shiny

2 minute read

Shiny is a web application framework that lets you create interactive websites representing R data visualization and analysis. The gallery has some nice exam...

Associating points with polygons in R

2 minute read

Some time ago I posted on how to find geographic coordinates given a list of village or city names in R. Somebody emailed me about how to do the reverse: the...

Time to learn Python

less than 1 minute read

Apparently Python is taking over the world (from a post by Tal Yarkoni):

Quick background maps in R

1 minute read

Sometimes, for whatever reason, you want to plot something fast. Last week I had some coordinates associated with event data that I was hoping were all from ...

Database adventures

1 minute read

Recently I’ve set up both a PostgreSQL and MySQL server to host databases related to some of our projects in the Ward Lab. I should note that I have no idea ...

Finding coordinates for cities, etc. with R

2 minute read

The problem: you have data that includes the name of a village or city in which something happened, but not coordinates for that village or city. This seems ...

Plot of Duke grade inflation

2 minute read

Someone sent around a link this morning to data on grade inflation at Duke, which shows a table of average GPAs for undergraduates from 1932 on. Looking at t...

Scale and north arrow for maps in R

1 minute read

A few months ago I produced some thematic maps of Bosnia (paper) using maptools and other packages in R, but I didn’t include scales or a north arrow. It sou...

Which governments torture?

1 minute read

Almost all states, at least at some point between 1995 and 2005. The Ill-Treatment and Torture (ITT) project by Courtenay Conrad and Will Moore codes Amnesty...

Running RStudio on Amazon EC2

1 minute read

For the most part I don’t do things that are computationally so intensive that I can’t run them on my work desktop. There have been a few times however where...

ROC curves

Precision-recall curves

8 minute read

ROC curves are not very good for evaluating model fit with sparse outcomes, like civil war onset or coups. Use precision-recall curves instead.

RStudio

Running RStudio on Amazon EC2

1 minute read

For the most part I don’t do things that are computationally so intensive that I can’t run them on my work desktop. There have been a few times however where...

SEB Tallinn Marathon

Baby steps with R Shiny

2 minute read

Shiny is a web application framework that lets you create interactive websites representing R data visualization and analysis. The gallery has some nice exam...

SEB Tallinna Maraton

Baby steps with R Shiny

2 minute read

Shiny is a web application framework that lets you create interactive websites representing R data visualization and analysis. The gallery has some nice exam...

SQL

Database adventures

1 minute read

Recently I’ve set up both a PostgreSQL and MySQL server to host databases related to some of our projects in the Ward Lab. I should note that I have no idea ...

Stata

Stata Basics

less than 1 minute read

A couple of lab notes from 2009, when I was TA for our Basic Quantitative Methods course:

Programming MLE models in Stata

less than 1 minute read

Another set of notes from when I was TA for our Advanced Quantitative Methods course with Prof. Matt Golder in 2008. The notes for Programming MLE models in ...

Thailand

Yemen

When forecasting goes wrong (maybe): Yemen

10 minute read

Over the past few months we have worked on regularly updating our irregular leadership change models and forecasts in order to provide monthly 6-month ahead ...

binary fit

Precision-recall curves

8 minute read

ROC curves are not very good for evaluating model fit with sparse outcomes, like civil war onset or coups. Use precision-recall curves instead.

ccode

Quick lookup for country codes

less than 1 minute read

After more than half a decade at this, it has finally dawned upon me that instead of downloading the Correlates of War state system membership table, or the ...

code

coding

Programming MLE models in Stata

less than 1 minute read

Another set of notes from when I was TA for our Advanced Quantitative Methods course with Prof. Matt Golder in 2008. The notes for Programming MLE models in ...

coin

Report on COIN intelligence collection

2 minute read

A few months ago the Defense Science Board Task Force on Defense Intelligence released a report on Counterinsurgency (COIN) Intelligence, Surveillance, and R...

counter-IED

country codes

coups

Good coup, bad coup

8 minute read

Alexander Noyes and Sebastian Elischer wrote about good coups on Monkey Cage a few weeks ago, in the shadow of fallout from the LaCour revelations. Good coup...

Archigos leader turnovers by regime

6 minute read

Exploration of data on leadership transitions and how they vary by regime types, using the Archigos data on state leaders and the Polity regime classification.

crisp

Taking over the world

1 minute read

I work as a Postdoctoral Fellow in the Ward Lab here at Duke University. The Lab currently consists of Mike Ward, me, and a group of very smart graduate stud...

data

Data management and missing data

10 minute read

A lot can go wrong between raw data and processed data used for analysis. Here is one post-mortem example and a plot that can help identify issues for countr...

Which governments torture?

1 minute read

Almost all states, at least at some point between 1995 and 2005. The Ill-Treatment and Torture (ITT) project by Courtenay Conrad and Will Moore codes Amnesty...

database

Database adventures

1 minute read

Recently I’ve set up both a PostgreSQL and MySQL server to host databases related to some of our projects in the Ward Lab. I should note that I have no idea ...

democracy

descriptive statistics

Good coup, bad coup

8 minute read

Alexander Noyes and Sebastian Elischer wrote about good coups on Monkey Cage a few weeks ago, in the shadow of fallout from the LaCour revelations. Good coup...

duke university

Taking over the world

1 minute read

I work as a Postdoctoral Fellow in the Ward Lab here at Duke University. The Lab currently consists of Mike Ward, me, and a group of very smart graduate stud...

duration modeling

egypt

event data

A quick look at the public ICEWS data

3 minute read

The ICEWS data, including the underlying raw event data as well as some aggregations, were quietly posted on Dataverse the Friday before last. I’ve worked wi...

The right kind of variance

7 minute read

or, How I learned to stop worrying and love event data. (This post first appeared on Predictive Heuristics)

forecasting

forecasts

When forecasting goes wrong (maybe): Yemen

10 minute read

Over the past few months we have worked on regularly updating our irregular leadership change models and forecasts in order to provide monthly 6-month ahead ...

geonames

Finding coordinates for cities, etc. with R

2 minute read

The problem: you have data that includes the name of a village or city in which something happened, but not coordinates for that village or city. This seems ...

good coups

Good coup, bad coup

8 minute read

Alexander Noyes and Sebastian Elischer wrote about good coups on Monkey Cage a few weeks ago, in the shadow of fallout from the LaCour revelations. Good coup...

grade inflation

Plot of Duke grade inflation

2 minute read

Someone sent around a link this morning to data on grade inflation at Duke, which shows a table of average GPAs for undergraduates from 1932 on. Looking at t...

gwcode

Quick lookup for country codes

less than 1 minute read

After more than half a decade at this, it has finally dawned upon me that instead of downloading the Correlates of War state system membership table, or the ...

homebrew

Building rgdal from source

1 minute read

My limited knowledge of what happens in Terminal, and thus by extension shell, is mostly driven by PostgreSQL/PostGID/rgdal/RPostgreSQL install errors. In th...

human rights

Which governments torture?

1 minute read

Almost all states, at least at some point between 1995 and 2005. The Ill-Treatment and Torture (ITT) project by Courtenay Conrad and Will Moore codes Amnesty...

icews

A quick look at the public ICEWS data

3 minute read

The ICEWS data, including the underlying raw event data as well as some aggregations, were quietly posted on Dataverse the Friday before last. I’ve worked wi...

Taking over the world

1 minute read

I work as a Postdoctoral Fellow in the Ward Lab here at Duke University. The Lab currently consists of Mike Ward, me, and a group of very smart graduate stud...

iraq body count

irregular leadership change

When forecasting goes wrong (maybe): Yemen

10 minute read

Over the past few months we have worked on regularly updating our irregular leadership change models and forecasts in order to provide monthly 6-month ahead ...

irregular leadership changes

Archigos leader turnovers by regime

6 minute read

Exploration of data on leadership transitions and how they vary by regime types, using the Archigos data on state leaders and the Polity regime classification.

jekyll

Moving from Wordpress to Jekyll

5 minute read

I moved my home page and blog from Wordpress to Jekyll over the past week, thanks to a small break in regular work. I’ve been using Wordpress.com since 2011,...

map scale

Scale and north arrow for maps in R

1 minute read

A few months ago I produced some thematic maps of Bosnia (paper) using maptools and other packages in R, but I didn’t include scales or a north arrow. It sou...

maps

Quick background maps in R

1 minute read

Sometimes, for whatever reason, you want to plot something fast. Last week I had some coordinates associated with event data that I was hoping were all from ...

missing values

Data management and missing data

10 minute read

A lot can go wrong between raw data and processed data used for analysis. Here is one post-mortem example and a plot that can help identify issues for countr...

north arrow

Scale and north arrow for maps in R

1 minute read

A few months ago I produced some thematic maps of Bosnia (paper) using maptools and other packages in R, but I didn’t include scales or a north arrow. It sou...

plotly

3d surface plots of GDP vs. event data

2 minute read

A while ago I wrote a post about how the patterns by which data for cross-national datasets observed over multiple periods, e.g. with country-year or country...

plots

Data management and missing data

10 minute read

A lot can go wrong between raw data and processed data used for analysis. Here is one post-mortem example and a plot that can help identify issues for countr...

polity

Good coup, bad coup

8 minute read

Alexander Noyes and Sebastian Elischer wrote about good coups on Monkey Cage a few weeks ago, in the shadow of fallout from the LaCour revelations. Good coup...

precision-recall curves

Precision-recall curves

8 minute read

ROC curves are not very good for evaluating model fit with sparse outcomes, like civil war onset or coups. Use precision-recall curves instead.

prediction

The right kind of variance

7 minute read

or, How I learned to stop worrying and love event data. (This post first appeared on Predictive Heuristics)

Taking over the world

1 minute read

I work as a Postdoctoral Fellow in the Ward Lab here at Duke University. The Lab currently consists of Mike Ward, me, and a group of very smart graduate stud...

predictions

predictive heuristics

Taking over the world

1 minute read

I work as a Postdoctoral Fellow in the Ward Lab here at Duke University. The Lab currently consists of Mike Ward, me, and a group of very smart graduate stud...

proj

Building rgdal from source

1 minute read

My limited knowledge of what happens in Terminal, and thus by extension shell, is mostly driven by PostgreSQL/PostGID/rgdal/RPostgreSQL install errors. In th...

random walk negative binomial

regime stability

research

Yugoslavs die less

4 minute read

In 1991 a census was conducted in Bosnia and Herzegovina, which then was still part of the disintegrating federal state of Yugoslavia. Bosnia was the most di...

rgdal

Building rgdal from source

1 minute read

My limited knowledge of what happens in Terminal, and thus by extension shell, is mostly driven by PostgreSQL/PostGID/rgdal/RPostgreSQL install errors. In th...

scientific computing

Time to learn Python

less than 1 minute read

Apparently Python is taking over the world (from a post by Tal Yarkoni):

shapefiles

shiny

Baby steps with R Shiny

2 minute read

Shiny is a web application framework that lets you create interactive websites representing R data visualization and analysis. The gallery has some nice exam...

shinyapps.io

Baby steps with R Shiny

2 minute read

Shiny is a web application framework that lets you create interactive websites representing R data visualization and analysis. The gallery has some nice exam...

sp

Associating points with polygons in R

2 minute read

Some time ago I posted on how to find geographic coordinates given a list of village or city names in R. Somebody emailed me about how to do the reverse: the...

spatial

Finding coordinates for cities, etc. with R

2 minute read

The problem: you have data that includes the name of a village or city in which something happened, but not coordinates for that village or city. This seems ...

Yugoslavs die less

4 minute read

In 1991 a census was conducted in Bosnia and Herzegovina, which then was still part of the disintegrating federal state of Yugoslavia. Bosnia was the most di...

split population logit

state system membership

Data management and missing data

10 minute read

A lot can go wrong between raw data and processed data used for analysis. Here is one post-mortem example and a plot that can help identify issues for countr...

survival function

teaching

time-series event count

torture

Which governments torture?

1 minute read

Almost all states, at least at some point between 1995 and 2005. The Ill-Treatment and Torture (ITT) project by Courtenay Conrad and Will Moore codes Amnesty...

traffic

Moving from Wordpress to Jekyll

5 minute read

I moved my home page and blog from Wordpress to Jekyll over the past week, thanks to a small break in regular work. I’ve been using Wordpress.com since 2011,...

variance

The right kind of variance

7 minute read

or, How I learned to stop worrying and love event data. (This post first appeared on Predictive Heuristics)

variance decomposition

The right kind of variance

7 minute read

or, How I learned to stop worrying and love event data. (This post first appeared on Predictive Heuristics)

visualization

Quick background maps in R

1 minute read

Sometimes, for whatever reason, you want to plot something fast. Last week I had some coordinates associated with event data that I was hoping were all from ...

ward lab

Taking over the world

1 minute read

I work as a Postdoctoral Fellow in the Ward Lab here at Duke University. The Lab currently consists of Mike Ward, me, and a group of very smart graduate stud...

wordpress

Moving from Wordpress to Jekyll

5 minute read

I moved my home page and blog from Wordpress to Jekyll over the past week, thanks to a small break in regular work. I’ve been using Wordpress.com since 2011,...